000
FXUS63 KPAH 301159
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVN SECTION. NO UPDATE TO DISCUSSION SECTION.

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND NOT QUITE THE HEAT
OF YESTERDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. A LOOK BACK ON PAST 24 HR LOOP OF
SATELLITE/RADAR DOES SHOW CONVECTION SCATTERED ABOUT PARTICULARLY
SW 2/3 OF PAH FA AND NAM MODELLED THIS REASONABLY WELL OR AS
GOOD/BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS. IT AGAIN PRODUCES A SIMILAR OUTPUT
TODAY AND WELL THEREFORE CARRY ANOTHER 20-30 POP ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FARTHEST NERN PTNS FA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. THIS CHANCE
CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY IN ACTIVE WLY-NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AFTER
WHICH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT SHOULD ENTRAIN ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GOING PACKAGE SO NO
CHANGES NECESSARY BEYOND DAY 4. MOS BLEND WITH INHERITED NOS INTO
COLLAB PIC IS THE FORECAST TEMP APPROACH.

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY AND A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY THIS MRNG PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE COMMON DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ONLY A CB MENTION AT KCGI. DESPITE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER
MOISTURE IN THE WRN SECTION...SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG AT KCGI/KPAH OVNGT SEEM UNLIKELY ATTM BECAUSE OF HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.